Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.031053 0.035333 0.040007 0.045497 0.051772 0.058726 0.067025
2025-02-09 0.024887 0.030839 0.037934 0.047030 0.058408 0.072204 0.090252
2025-02-16 0.020831 0.027331 0.035545 0.046718 0.061576 0.080728 0.107414
2025-02-23 0.018197 0.025014 0.034049 0.046954 0.065001 0.089473 0.125406
2025-03-02 0.015914 0.022767 0.032230 0.046324 0.066910 0.096080 0.140907
2025-03-09 0.014555 0.021585 0.031657 0.047238 0.070912 0.105825 0.161755
2025-03-16 0.013063 0.020008 0.030295 0.046759 0.072685 0.112327 0.178279
2025-03-23 0.012286 0.019397 0.030265 0.048231 0.077492 0.123797 0.203657
2025-03-30 0.010948 0.017763 0.028476 0.046707 0.077321 0.127298 0.216352
2025-04-06 0.009978 0.016613 0.027323 0.046061 0.078453 0.132922 0.233061
2025-04-13 0.008921 0.015211 0.025619 0.044302 0.077481 0.134835 0.243400
2025-04-20 0.008575 0.014977 0.025835 0.045837 0.082341 0.147232 0.273748
2025-04-27 0.008233 0.014731 0.026031 0.047396 0.087476 0.160766 0.308010
2025-05-04 0.007905 0.014479 0.026193 0.048911 0.092692 0.174996 0.345292
2025-05-11 0.007345 0.013749 0.025419 0.048591 0.094378 0.182695 0.370521
2025-05-18 0.006917 0.013223 0.024970 0.048837 0.097160 0.192746 0.401575
2025-05-25 0.006417 0.012514 0.024108 0.048180 0.098059 0.199108 0.425590
2025-06-01 0.006152 0.012238 0.024055 0.049133 0.102317 0.212692 0.466560
2025-06-08 0.005748 0.011649 0.023331 0.048634 0.103479 0.219900 0.494265
2025-06-15 0.005589 0.011544 0.023569 0.050167 0.109124 0.237221 0.546761
2025-06-22 0.005135 0.010787 0.022403 0.048580 0.107774 0.239083 0.563576
2025-06-29 0.004805 0.010266 0.021687 0.047907 0.108390 0.245368 0.591548
2025-07-06 0.004401 0.009551 0.020500 0.046074 0.106178 0.244965 0.603170